Originally Posted by Sunset Poet
What I see is a duality:
If Trump gets a good result quickly, it’s a win. Venezuela was a win.
If it drags out and American soldiers start dying in numbers, it’s a loss for him.
It remains to be seen how fast Trump gets this done.
The promptness will determine if it is a win or a loss for Trump.

Marty, I actually agree with your basic premise - but by your own definition, this is already a loss.
It’s been over a month, and there’s no quick result. The Strait is still effectively restricted, global oil markets are disrupted, and there’s no clear endgame. Bombing Iran into the Stone Age is not the solution.
So the “promptness” part? That’s already gone.
Instead of a fast win, this is turning into exactly the kind of prolonged conflict you described. Ceasefire talks are stalled, tensions are escalating, and even basic objectives - like reopening the Strait - haven’t been achieved.
And now we’re seeing things like U.S. aircraft being shot down and casualties mounting. Just imagine, if Iran captures a US pilot or soldier in the process. That’s not a sign of something wrapping up quickly - that’s a sign of things getting more complicated.
The longer this drags on, the more expensive and risky it becomes, with no guarantee of a clean outcome. That’s not a win, that’s mission creep.
So if speed determines success, then the outcome is already pretty clear. As always, feel free to see things differently.

Last edited by Rob B.; 04/03/26 03:57 PM.