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Rob,

I don't know what is in the existing trade agreements as they stand.
But if they contain one-sided tariffs on US goods, then I, and a lot of people, don't care what's in them.
We want them looked at, and if it is un-fair, we want it made fair.
And if squaring them up makes us run out of bananas in February, I don't eat that many bananas anyway.

I basically agree with your last paragraph that trade wars ultimately seize up markets...all things being fairly equal.
But in the case where the major singular market is headed by chumps who let their own country be taken advantage of by much smaller "trading partners,
THEN...when a once-in-a-century-disrupter comes to power that can choke the smaller trading partners markets off, those trading partners can't be so bold, and have to come to more equitable terms.

I, and others, believe that possible scenario is worth shaking the tree.

And there are wild cards,

Sheinbaum is only president of part of Mexico. Roughly 60-70 percent.
30-40 percent is controlled by warring, quasi-feudalistic drug-cartel-warlords. (who have influence all over Mexico)
The place is a wretched mess.
If Trump seals the border tight and cuts trade with Mexico down or off, that will lock Sheinbaum and the cartels up together and Mexico will likely devolve into a revolution. That would already be the case if not for illegal immigration and remittances.
If I know that, so does Sheinbaum, the socialist.

Also,
I'm sure that you know that every asset class is in a bubble.
The top 30% are rich with inflated stocks and art works, etc.
The bottom 70% are collectively badly behind on some of their car payments.
A correction is inevitable.
One correction scenario is to let the stock market and everything else fall in order to ring money out of the system.
Trump may DESIRE that to happen early in his term, rather than later.
The risk is that it wont stop at a recession.

And the most important thing for you to remember is that Marty don't really know what's gonna happen. He's just some ole' guy that wonders and watches.