5 years, not 50 indeed.

Read Ray Kurzweil, a well known synth designer but now better known as an outspoken Futurist and Transhumanist, who popularized "The Singularity" and accurately predicted exponential increase in technologies like computers, genetics, nanotechnology, robotics and artificial intelligence, to paraphrase Wikipedia.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/The_Singularity_Is_Near

And to be clear, as I said and as Marty just alluded to, AI "sentience" itself may or may not happen or be possible, but as AI's ability to emulate evolves, it certainly is starting to quack like a duck: emulations are becoming indistinguishable from the real thing. Enter ethical problems, copyright issues, an obsolescent work force, etc.

Marty, I share your insecurity towards AI to a degree, but I want to stress what I see as a big silver lining here, at least at present. Because of how I use AI, I see it as mostly just changing the roles that humans play in the process of creativity--doing that more than actually eliminating "us". Instead of the God-like process of creating something from nothing ("let there be light"), now I am choosing from the multiple possibilities AI can make explicit and making some coherent semblence from them. And "something-from-nothing" is just an illusion, anyway, that occurs when the subconcious plays the bigger part in the creative process.

IOW, AI can free the artist from a lot of gruntwork, and also be the source of inspiration. Our roles as creators, then, can laser in on being Producers. The way I use AI makes me feel like I've got a dozen creators in the room with me, spitballing ideas at me. The occasional brilliant line of text/musical sample/short visual sequence happens often enough. It's still up to me to put these things together in some coherent form. I don't mind at all--being relegated to director/producer.

This creative use of AI will aid "visionaries" but won't do much for others. Take a look at the various Discord servers for the various AI's: OpenAI Jukebox, Stable Diffusion, etc., and it becomes clear fast, that by-and-large, most folks who are using this stuff are just having fun in their sandbox making stuff of zero consequence. But along comes the occasional visionary, the person who can see the finished statue instead of the block of marble.

Here is some AI about to go public. It will change everything...until the next thing comes along to exponentially make it look like tinker toys:


Last edited by Michael Zaneski; 02/21/23 05:36 PM.
Fate doesn't hang on a wrong or right choice
Fortune depends on the tone of your voice

-The Divine Comedy (Neil Hannon)
from the song "Songs of Love"
from the album "Casanova" (1996)