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#1162564 - 03/30/20 09:40 AM Re: In reply to John's shout out.. corona virus [Re: Roy Cooper]  
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If you go to JHU and focus on the new cases graph and click on the various countries, the new cases appears to flattening or descending around the world.
I dont know what is happening in NYNJ but I have been watching MSNBC this morning and hysteria and polticizing of the disease seems over the top.

Numbers to keep in mind.

2017 - per the CDC - FLU SEASON estimates in the USA
45 million cases
810,000 hospitalizations
61,000 flu associated deaths

Corona Virus so far
144,000 cases
2600 deaths

And the occurrence of new cases appears to have decelerated.
I get the concern with transmission. COVID 19 spreads quickly. The death RATE appears slightly higher. I get mitigation.
I don't get the level of hysteria going on.
We should have been more hysterical in 2017, but I don't remember much being made of 61,000 estimated deaths.
And with mitigation, and IF there is a firewall at 20000 new cases a day....I dont see this getting anywhere near 61,000 deaths.
Yet, Fauci is predicting 100,000 or so they say..

I can't connect the dots.
Other than that the high level of transmission is making the cases hit at once, thereby maybe overwhelming the system in places like NY
The gov of Tx stated yesterday that there are 16000 beds set up for Covid 19 and 2 percent of them were in use.
Harris County with 4.6 million people records less than 500 cases.



#1162565 - 03/30/20 09:50 AM Re: In reply to John's shout out.. corona virus [Re: Roy Cooper]  
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Well I can only go by the updated local numbers. I wrote in this thread that we had 2900 cases on March 23, we now have over 13000, so it spiked 10,000 in a few days, I also reported NY had 22000 we now have 59000

It's possible that other areas are not doing as much testing, and they still have many positive but do know it yet.

They did note a slight decease in hospitalization due to corona, which may mean that the early diagnoses improves the outcome.

The one thing they fear is but when travel opens back up, carriers can shuffle it back in.


Last edited by Fdemetrio; 03/30/20 09:53 AM.
#1162566 - 03/30/20 09:53 AM Re: In reply to John's shout out.. corona virus [Re: Fdemetrio]  
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Originally Posted by Fdemetrio
Well I can only go by the updated local numbers. I wrote in this thread that we had 2900 cases on March 23, we now have over 13000, so it spiked 10,000 in a few days, I also reported by had 22000 we now have 59000

It's possible that other areas are not doing as much testing, and they still have many positive e but do know it yet.

They did note a slight we cease in hospitalization due to xorona, which may mean that the early diagnoses improves the outcome.

The one thing they fear is but when travel.old s up, carriers do t e enable they be e it will shuffle it back in.



keep an eye on the new local cases per day going forward. That will tell you if the curve is flattening. A lot of concern is given to whether the curve flattens or ascends.

#1162568 - 03/30/20 10:02 AM Re: In reply to John's shout out.. corona virus [Re: Roy Cooper]  
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New cases are by the thousands, when last week it was by the hundreds.

It's not flattening get which is why Fauci is not having the Easter opening.

Trump wanted an enforced two week quarantine for ny and nj, which if u want to be thorough is not a bad idea, but they decided not to.

my guess is the new April 30 reopening will be pushed back again

Not that it's that important, but this can really hurt baseball and other sports. How do you maintain your skill level if you can't play games


Last edited by Fdemetrio; 03/30/20 10:03 AM.
#1162570 - 03/30/20 12:28 PM Re: In reply to John's shout out.. corona virus [Re: Roy Cooper]  
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Here's an example. If you look at Hopkins numbers for my it will say 59000, Cuomo just updated and now it's 66000. Up 7 k from yesterday.

So tomorrows numbers or later today it will read 66 k. Then tomorrow he will give briefing with new numbers. He's ahead of the Hopkins numbers

Last edited by Fdemetrio; 03/30/20 12:29 PM.
#1162572 - 03/30/20 12:49 PM Re: In reply to John's shout out.. corona virus [Re: Fdemetrio]  
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Originally Posted by Fdemetrio
Here's an example. If you look at Hopkins numbers for my it will say 59000, Cuomo just updated and now it's 66000. Up 7 k from yesterday.

So tomorrows numbers or later today it will read 66 k. Then tomorrow he will give briefing with new numbers. He's ahead of the Hopkins numbers



If the death rate is 1.5 percent of the total number of cases, that means that 97,000 more CONFIRMED deaths will require (97000/.015) = 6.466 million additional CONFIRMED cases.
Right now, in the USA they are confirming about 20000 new cases a day. (over the last 4 days) If that rate remains flat, that is a lot of days to get to 6.466 million. Unless the new cases rates skyrockets notwithstanding mitigation.

I'm not a statistician. I'm just a guy trying to get his mind around the risk to an architect and his wife in Harris County Texas.
But I can't get things to make basic sense.

#1162574 - 03/30/20 01:12 PM Re: In reply to John's shout out.. corona virus [Re: Roy Cooper]  
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And Murphy just spoke for nj up 3500 from yesterday. He said social distancing has helped hospitals and supplies but the cases are coming in in droves. Most don't need help but enough do to require more demands. Amazingly we still don't have enough beds

We're testing more people. Detroit and nolo are getting hit hard in droves

Most of the wh experts are predicting mi!lions of cases and 100-200 kdeaths.

Last edited by Fdemetrio; 03/30/20 01:14 PM.
#1162575 - 03/30/20 01:19 PM Re: In reply to John's shout out.. corona virus [Re: Roy Cooper]  
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Here's a bit of good news, it appears it's like measles in that once you get it you are immune.

Maybe that's why so many want to be tested to feel they will be immune.

#1162577 - 03/30/20 01:34 PM Re: In reply to John's shout out.. corona virus [Re: Fdemetrio]  
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Originally Posted by Fdemetrio
Here's a bit of good news, it appears it's like measles in that once you get it you are immune.

Maybe that's why so many want to be tested to feel they will be immune.


That is one of the unsubstantiated rumors about this virus. Reinfection in China.

Ordinarily a host is infected. Immune system produces antibodies and that host cannot be infected again by that same virus. The more hosts that cannot be infected,, the more the virus wanes.
There are stories about Wuhan that some hosts who tested positive, tested negative and now positive again. Scary.

In 1918, the Spanish Flu which I believe began in Kansas, mutated and came around again with disastrous infections. Also scary.

Hopefully the Wuhan thing is hysteria and the press reporting rumor as fact , like they often do.

#1162578 - 03/30/20 01:41 PM Re: In reply to John's shout out.. corona virus [Re: Roy Cooper]  
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Yeah the regular flu is an ever morphing virus that's why we need a different vaccine every year.

Hopefully we can develop immunity

#1162580 - 03/30/20 03:08 PM Re: In reply to John's shout out.. corona virus [Re: Roy Cooper]  
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Actually nj experienced the single worst day of cases and deaths overnight 3500 cases over night

https://www.nj.com/coronavirus/2020...announce-over-3k-new-positive-tests.html

Last edited by Fdemetrio; 03/30/20 03:08 PM.
#1162581 - 03/30/20 03:46 PM Re: In reply to John's shout out.. corona virus [Re: Fdemetrio]  
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Originally Posted by Fdemetrio
Actually nj experienced the single worst day of cases and deaths overnight 3500 cases over night

https://www.nj.com/coronavirus/2020...announce-over-3k-new-positive-tests.html


This site seems to also post reliable stats.

https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/

Click on USA and then you can look at it by state.
The totals are at the bottom.

For today there are about 16,200 new cases in the USA.

5800 in NY
3250 in NJ

9250 out of 16200 new USA cases are NYNJ

And unfortunately, the day is far from over, so it looks like it will blow through 20000 and start the curve ascending again.
IMO...this virus has two theaters...NYNJ and the remainder of the USA.

#1162583 - 03/30/20 05:21 PM Re: In reply to John's shout out.. corona virus [Re: Roy Cooper]  
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Cuomo spoke today about people believing this is a New York problem and how wrong they are.

What remains to be seen is whether or not when other states catch up with testing that they start elevating.

Carriers can cause as much problems as people who have symptoms.

I don't believe the next big epicenter will get the same support.

#1162594 - 03/31/20 03:15 AM Re: In reply to John's shout out.. corona virus [Re: Roy Cooper]  
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Following this post which I started, and still being in isolation, and after watching the same film 30 times, I wanted to thank those who
are not safe at home. As I am in London, I guess the lyrics come from my thoughts and observations in London.

you can see the post in lyrics 3 forum

- The Dedicated Few -

http://www.jpfolks.com/forum/ubbthr...ew-in-this-time-of-need.html#Post1162593

God Bless to all...

Roy


'You Have To Kiss A Lot Of Frogs To Find A Prince'

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#1162601 - 03/31/20 07:58 AM Re: In reply to John's shout out.. corona virus [Re: Roy Cooper]  
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Can someone here tell what I am doing wrong when I look at this?

We are being told that deaths in the USA can go upwards from 100,000 to 200,000.
Last night on tv they said that the death rate amongst infected cases was 1.85%.
ASSUMING a final number of 150,000 deaths....

150,000 deaths divided by .0185 = a total infected population of 8.101 million cases in the USA.
Currently there are 164,610 infeccted cases per JHU.
That requires an increase of infected cases of 7.936 million over the next 60 days.
(if I understand correctly that the disease will be beaten or close to subdued by June 01,2020
That means that the average DAILY INCREASE in cases will be 132, 273 per day over the 60 days. That is Average.
Over the last five days, the daily increase has been 18.1k, 17.8k,19.8k, 19.4k, 20.9k.
So, my figures indicate a massive acceleration in new cases coming up.

With mitigation in place and data collection beginning to congeal, how do the numbers jump from a daily increase of appx 20,0000 to 132,000?
I'm sincerely asking anyone who may know. What have I assumed incorrectly?

#1162602 - 03/31/20 08:24 AM Re: In reply to John's shout out.. corona virus [Re: Roy Cooper]  
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Martin: It could be that the current count of infected people is way, way under-counted. So if there 165K known cases, that number could already be 1.65 million. But, like you, the only numbers we have are the CDC and John Hopkins #'s, so we are running a bit blind here. We know that numerous folks who have symptoms are told to stay home if they don't have breathing issues. I don't think those folks are getting tested. Plus all the asymptomatic people. If 100K people are really going to die and the real death rate is 1%, that's 10 million infected!!!!!!!!!!


"Good science comes in peer reviewed journals. Conspiracy theories come in YouTube videos. "
Kevin @ bandcamp: Crows Say Vee-Eh (and Kevin @50/90 2019)
#1162603 - 03/31/20 08:35 AM Re: In reply to John's shout out.. corona virus [Re: Roy Cooper]  
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It's all dependent on how many people have the virus. The massive growth of positive tests means more will die.

It's flawed in many ways, one main way, is the disease is different for everybody, even the symptoms are different. It's akin to trying to predict how many people will A. Hear a song, and B. how many will like the song. C. How many will hate it.

It's worst case scenario, probably based on the explosion of positive tests.

I mean, a coin flip while mathematically a 50/50 proposition, still has huge fluctuations. You could flip a coin 10 times and it wouldn't be impossible for all ten to come up heads, even it's a 50/50 shot.

The next thousand people to get covid19 could all die, or none could.

Still a huge amount of randomness in any prediction.

Last edited by Fdemetrio; 03/31/20 08:36 AM.
#1162605 - 03/31/20 09:38 AM Re: In reply to John's shout out.. corona virus [Re: Roy Cooper]  
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Kevin

What you are saying makes sense. The number of infected asymptomatic people walking around out there must be 10's of thousands more than confirmed.

Anecdotally...

Houston/Harris County has a population of 4.6 million and only 5 confirmed deaths.
2 days ago, a doctor called and said that the DIY tests are available to my wife and I. The fact that I can go pick up a test indicates that they must be coming more and more available.
Neither my wife, nor I...personally....know or know of anyone who has tested positive.

One would think that would not be the case in a pandemic where the death toll could reach 100-200k.

Thanks for your opinion, It's makes sense.

sgned,

Old bewildered guy in Houston. .

#1162606 - 03/31/20 10:04 AM Re: In reply to John's shout out.. corona virus [Re: Roy Cooper]  
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Last edited by Martin Lide; 03/31/20 10:05 AM.
#1162608 - 03/31/20 10:08 AM Re: In reply to John's shout out.. corona virus [Re: Sunset Poet]  
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the link dosn't seem to work Martin.. it wants me to log in to a google drive account...

Roy


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#1162611 - 03/31/20 11:26 AM Re: In reply to John's shout out.. corona virus [Re: Roy Cooper]  
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Originally Posted by Roy Cooper


the link dosn't seem to work Martin.. it wants me to log in to a google drive account...

Roy


Sorry Roy. I didnt realize that google required that anymore.
It s just a funny post. It is a Chick Filet advertisement spoof. A picture of a bat with a sign on it that says...."Eat More Chikin"


Try this one...
[img]https://www.instagram.com/p/B-aHdqmhZBv/[/img]



#1162613 - 03/31/20 01:04 PM Re: In reply to John's shout out.. corona virus [Re: Roy Cooper]  
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Ny 75000 up 9 k from yesterday

Nj 18600 up 2 k


Last edited by Fdemetrio; 03/31/20 01:05 PM.
#1162619 - 03/31/20 05:52 PM Re: In reply to John's shout out.. corona virus [Re: Roy Cooper]  
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It seems Texas has spring breakers who wouldn't cooperate too. The Florida ones are just now expressing regret....

https://news.yahoo.com/28-texas-spring-breakers-just-205700744.html

#1162621 - 03/31/20 06:39 PM Re: In reply to John's shout out.. corona virus [Re: Fdemetrio]  
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Originally Posted by Fdemetrio
It seems Texas has spring breakers who wouldn't cooperate too. The Florida ones are just now expressing regret....

https://news.yahoo.com/28-texas-spring-breakers-just-205700744.html



No doubt

Cabo was a bad choice for a couple of reasons.

Last edited by Martin Lide; 03/31/20 06:40 PM.
#1162624 - 03/31/20 09:04 PM Re: In reply to John's shout out.. corona virus [Re: 90 dB]  
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Quote



Curious that you didn't cite the source for your Copy/Paste, Kevin.


https://www.democraticunderground.com/100213091481


Curious, indeed. Democratic Underground?


How very subversive of you , comrade. smirk



If those quotes were accurate, it wouldn't matter where they came from.

Are they accurate, or are they not?

That is the question that should be asked.

Last edited by Pat Hardy; 03/31/20 09:05 PM.
#1162634 - 04/01/20 04:59 AM Re: In reply to John's shout out.. corona virus [Re: Roy Cooper]  
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Concerts, major sporting events, and car shows have been terminated where I live. Including the annual Grandma's Marathon, which is one of Duluth's biggest attractions. It is better to err on the side of caution. But I have never seen anything like this and with past viruses.


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#1162637 - 04/01/20 05:45 AM Re: In reply to John's shout out.. corona virus [Re: Roy Cooper]  
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A 12 year old and a 13 year old just died with the virus, so the young can get it and die, not just the old. Maybe those invincible young people will take it more seriously now.

#1162639 - 04/01/20 07:38 AM Re: In reply to John's shout out.. corona virus [Re: Roy Cooper]  
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There was another spike in the rate of new cases in the USA yesterday.

#1162643 - 04/01/20 11:29 AM Re: In reply to John's shout out.. corona virus [Re: Roy Cooper]  
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Just on the news… a person coughed in a parking lot. Another man fired a threatening shot. They were both fined for reckless endangerment. Significance of the story - coughing is now equal to firing a gun in public. And just when I thought it couldn't get worse. Trigger happy idiot!

John smile

#1162660 - 04/02/20 12:48 AM Re: In reply to John's shout out.. corona virus [Re: Roy Cooper]  
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It is hard to nail down the exact numbers for a reasonable guess of what the ultimate death toll would be. The number of cases is highly unreliable, and depends on which area a person is in.

Some areas have drive thru testing, so any one who suspects they have it can be tested if they are willing to wait a few hours. in their car in line. where lots of people can get tests, the case count will rise rapidly, but ultimate death rate from those tests will be a low percentage.

in other areas people that are only very ill get tests. there the number of known cases might be less but the death rate would be higher. not because the virus is any more deadly there, but because the deaths would be divided by fewer cases.

Deaths are the only reliable counts, and they are doubling every week or less it seems. So the higher guestimate from cdc of 240,000 (up from 200,000 a few days ago) is very reachable. In fact it might only be 7 weeks away.

its not the numbers, its the progression of the numbers. 1 2 4 8 16. the average is only about 6.1, but the next number in the sequence is 32.

a non math way to measure it is we are 2 to 3 weeks behind Italy, but that might not be as reliable since they are in full lockdown, and parts of US were still having spring break, so we may pass them or catch up. if 240K were an over/under bet, I'm afraid I would have to bet over.

The only bright spot so far is that UK has developed an antibody test that can tell if a person has had the virus and survived. Not sure how soon it will be widely available, but that will help people know if they are safe to venture out again. Keeping fingers crossed.

Be Safe.


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#1162800 - 04/07/20 09:31 AM Re: In reply to John's shout out.. corona virus [Re: Roy Cooper]  
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Time for a perspective moment...Last year 80,000 deaths in the USA was reported by the CDC from the flu. This year the USA death toll is at 10,980 so far. This is all starting to look like a political hoax. Thousands die of the flu every year. Ironic that so many people refused flu shots in the past – and are now desperate for a coronavirus vaccine. Go figure…

John smile

#1162803 - 04/07/20 10:07 AM Re: In reply to John's shout out.. corona virus [Re: Roy Cooper]  
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Well the deaths from corona are being publicized because of the daily counts, so when somebody famous dies its a wake up call.

People are familiar with flu, doctors know when it rises and falls, how many will die, we have a vaccine, and have drugs like tamiflu to cut it in half.

For corona we have nothing. And no predictive pattern.

With trump touting the anti malaria drug, and possibly has stock in it, that would be the same worst political hoax of all time, if it turns out to be true.

But assuming nothing like that, for Anybody on either political team to start this hoax and how it has destroyed the health care system, the economy, that would be the personification of evil

It's way to late into it to be calling it a hoax any more. It's costing trillions of dollars and too people are dying. Young healthy ones too.

Last year's flu was an annomaly, one of the worst of all time. And when there's a vaccine, drugs to treat it and predictability, it's not going to cause the same panic.



Last edited by Fdemetrio; 04/07/20 10:08 AM.
#1162804 - 04/07/20 10:08 AM Re: In reply to John's shout out.. corona virus [Re: John Lawrence Schick]  
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Originally Posted by John Lawrence Schick
... This is all starting to look like a political hoax. …


I think "political hoax" is a bit on the incorrect side. I think "operational failure" is a better term to use. All pandemic strategic plans count on one thing. The ability to create a test for the current virus/bug and the ability to roll it out to help track/locate clusters and contain them. No one expected the CDC to have their first test fail so spectacularly. … and then the ramp up of industry manufacture/test/get results was another spectacular failure. Then there was also the inability to produce and distribute masks and other PPE. It was a perfect storm for a disaster.

Therefore the US government was driving blind. When this is over, folks will probably say, a) if we had proper testing and b) we had masks and mitigation items in the beginning maybe we could have had the high risk people be quarantined at home and the mostly healthy could have some level of economic activity with everyone wearing masks and such.

If you agree with the 2018 numbers then 80,000 died and 16 million got it, then the mortality rate is 0.5%! By the way, because of mutating/rotating flu virus strains, flu shots are only about 50% effective!

As of today, we still don't have the testing capability or the mask/ppe equipment to turn us loose again.

Last edited by Kevin Emmrich; 04/07/20 10:14 AM. Reason: typos

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#1162814 - 04/07/20 12:26 PM Re: In reply to John's shout out.. corona virus [Re: Roy Cooper]  
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Careful Kevin. When I said the same thing, I was called a moron...so better to say Trump has dealt with this perfectly...because he knows better than any scientist, economist. doctor...in fact he is simply the best at absolutely everything

And this political hoax too is so much reality...in fact, when you look at what is going on around the world...you see EVERY country is experiencing the exact same political hoax. Absolutely uncanny, but hey, Trump has called it a hoax (in fairness he changed that tune..but this is meant to be satirical sooh) and his supporters believe that it's a hoax so it must be true, and the Deep State, Fake Media, The "Human Scum" and such are all out to ruin everybody's day.







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#1162816 - 04/07/20 12:36 PM Re: In reply to John's shout out.. corona virus [Re: John Voorpostel]  
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Originally Posted by John Voorpostel
Careful Kevin. When I said the same thing, I was called a moron...so better to say Trump has dealt with this perfectly...because he knows better than any scientist, economist. doctor...in fact he is simply the best at absolutely everything.


Ha, ha -- Notice that I didn't blame trump. In fact I don't blame trump for the outbreak of the coronavirus. I do have a lot to say on that subject, though -- but I will keep my thoughts to myself. I was chastised by niteshift ,rightfully so, for adding a political flavor to this thread once before.


"Good science comes in peer reviewed journals. Conspiracy theories come in YouTube videos. "
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#1162818 - 04/07/20 12:55 PM Re: In reply to John's shout out.. corona virus [Re: Roy Cooper]  
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No of course you can't blame Trump for the outbreak...anyone who does is out of touch with reality.....but we can definitely follow what he said and did about it and form a pretty concrete picture of those facts....and judge his leadership on that basis

But as I said in the post that got me called a moron. Lots of time later to look back. For now there are more important things to do

WRT to the mortality rate

There is a theorem used in statistics and economics called The Law of Large Numbers. It basically says that as the number of incidents measured increases, the measured value converges towards the average.

So right now, Johns Hopkins reports just under 1.4 million cases worldwide with a mortality rate of 79,000+....coming in at 5.6%

Now that does not mean that a single city, county or state will experience this...but with 330million people, the US will come closer to this number...AND it does say that this is extremely infectious and it has a significantly higher mortality rate than the flu. Note too that there are still folks going through it, and new cases are popping up...so the true number will not be known for awhile.

The ONLY way you can dispute these facts is if you discredit Johns Hopkins as fake, the perpetrator of a hoax, bad collector of stats, or bad at basic math. Pick one if you must



If writing ever becomes work I think I'm going to have to stop

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#1162827 - 04/07/20 04:19 PM Re: In reply to John's shout out.. corona virus [Re: John Lawrence Schick]  
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Originally Posted by John Lawrence Schick
Time for a perspective moment...Last year 80,000 deaths in the USA was reported by the CDC from the flu. This year the USA death toll is at 10,980 so far. This is all starting to look like a political hoax. Thousands die of the flu every year. Ironic that so many people refused flu shots in the past – and are now desperate for a coronavirus vaccine. Go figure…

John smile


I understand your POV. Even though I dont think that the final toll in the USA will be anywhere near the 100-250K that they were projecting just a few days ago....I dont consider it a hoax because of the ease of transmission and the fact that it would saturate cruise ships and cause a number of deaths that seasonal flu would not ...has made it a real threat to me.. The death rate versus the seasonal flu seems much higher.

Though, in the last two weeks, just using basic algebra on the numbers....the projections looked outlandishly stretched. My personal theory? We were "high-balled."

The CDC pumped the numbers to scare people into mitigation.
The media and dim-ocrats did it to stir up ratings and Trump-hate which for them have become one in the same thing.
And then Trump did a rope-a-dope. Go along with the dems and media's inflated hyperbole and later claim to have saved the world from it. Coming to a theater near you soon.

People are dying and it is a disease that infected and killed a lot of people quickly so I take it seriously and personally believe that it could have killed 200k plus left unabated...but the Bullsht has been a factor.

#1162831 - 04/07/20 04:50 PM Re: In reply to John's shout out.. corona virus [Re: Roy Cooper]  
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This virus is much more severe then seasonal flu. It has a known kill rate of over 5% and these figures are most probably under reported.

It is highly contagious and may have the ability to mutate and therefore avoid a vaccine.

It is not something to be taken lightly. As seen in Italy, it has decimated communities and has no fear or favour whether you are rich or poor.

This is not a time for politic's. It is a time for good hygiene, social distancing and a sensible medical approach to a very serious issue.

Stay safe folks. Stay home, practice social distancing and wash your hands regularly.

Write some songs until it pass's because it eventually will smile

cheer, niteshift

#1162849 - 04/08/20 08:07 AM Re: In reply to John's shout out.. corona virus [Re: John Lawrence Schick]  
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Originally Posted by John Lawrence Schick
Time for a perspective moment...Last year 80,000 deaths in the USA was reported by the CDC from the flu. This year the USA death toll is at 10,980 so far. This is all starting to look like a political hoax. Thousands die of the flu every year. Ironic that so many people refused flu shots in the past – and are now desperate for a coronavirus vaccine. Go figure…

John smile


A difficult comparison to make, John, because you are comparing an annual number of flu deaths to the deaths from covid19 so far - but covid19 is still in exponential growth.

I hope the total number of deaths is lower than expected. But here is a different perspective:

On the average day, about 7400 people die in the US - from all causes (heart attacks, cancer, stroke, car accidents, suicide, shootings, you name it). 7400 people die each in this country each day.

Yesterday, in this country, 1906 people died from covid19 alone.

Political hoax? Hardly.

Scott

#1162850 - 04/08/20 08:24 AM Re: In reply to John's shout out.. corona virus [Re: Scott Campbell]  
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Originally Posted by Scott Campbell
Originally Posted by John Lawrence Schick
Time for a perspective moment...Last year 80,000 deaths in the USA was reported by the CDC from the flu. This year the USA death toll is at 10,980 so far. This is all starting to look like a political hoax. Thousands die of the flu every year. Ironic that so many people refused flu shots in the past – and are now desperate for a coronavirus vaccine. Go figure…

John smile


A difficult comparison to make, John, because you are comparing an annual number of flu deaths to the deaths from covid19 so far - but covid19 is still in exponential growth.

I hope the total number of deaths is lower than expected. But here is a different perspective:

On the average day, about 7400 people die in the US - from all causes (heart attacks, cancer, stroke, car accidents, suicide, shootings, you name it). 7400 people die each in this country each day.

Yesterday, in this country, 1906 people died from covid19 alone.

Political hoax? Hardly.

Scott



I don't believe that the cases are still in exponential growth. The new cases have hit a plateau over the last 3 or 4 days.
Correct me if I am wrong.
If they remain on the plateau for a while at the rate of 30k +/- cases a day and 2000 deaths, that will yield 60K deaths a month The USA is at 13k deaths now.
It is not unreasonable to assume that the new cases and deaths will decline as time progresses.
Supposedly, Hospital admissions and ICU admissions and deaths are all down.
Right now...I believe that they are projecting that new case decline to start on the 15th.

If any of these assumptions are incorrect...please correct me. Thanks

#1162851 - 04/08/20 08:33 AM Re: In reply to John's shout out.. corona virus [Re: Roy Cooper]  
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Wuhan isn't a hoax but the media keeps getting caught promoting fraudulant stories, politicians use it to promote their pet projects( funding for the Kennedy Center?!), dire apocalyptic predictions keep failing to come true, all of which leads to well-earned skepticism.

Patients already critically ill who die are listed as dying from the virus when they died with it.

Local news has had a reporter stationed outside a major hospital for weeks. Look behind her and it's obvious all is quiet.

It's fast becoming a Doomsday Cult.


Nashville demos etc:

https://www.soundclick.com/bands3/default.cfm?bandID=431939

other demos:

https://soundcloud.com/wabash-cannibal

Amazon Kindle books by Robert George you may enjoy:

1) Americana

2) Teenage Graceland

3) The Will to Be

4) Fort Mystery

5) Wheel Sea

6) My One True Love
#1162852 - 04/08/20 08:37 AM Re: In reply to John's shout out.. corona virus [Re: Roy Cooper]  
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"Political hoax? Hardly" Political hoax, definitely.


No, the virus isn’t a hoax. It’s real. Although, I’m still thinking this could be genetically engineered by man. The hoax is how the media and political corruptors are manipulating this for less than noble reasons. Joe Biden sickens me with his political ads stating how he would have handled this pandemic differently. Yeah Joe, you’re the man….

John smile

#1162854 - 04/08/20 09:07 AM Re: In reply to John's shout out.. corona virus [Re: Roy Cooper]  
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Couch, what about Trump saying it was no threat to America?

What about Trump having stock in the malaria drug, and te!ling people they should take it, not a doctor, just an investor.

Even if he doesn't have money interests, how does somebody with no medical experience say that, let alone the pousa.

"Take it if you want" what do you have to lose? your life??????

What do the people on the Safeway line now tell you? Are they wearing masks and gloves?

Stop reading Glenn beck, rush limbaugh, they are no better than cooper and maddow.

We know it's big money for both sides in the news, but facts are facts, trillions spent, hospitals over stuffed, many have died.

Personally I believe the hype of death rate was a move to ensure compliance of quarantine, I said that in this thread much earlier. The couldn't get kids off the beach or the basketball courts, seems it worked.

It could have also been over stated so that trump can then brag "well they said it would kill 100-200k, but we kept it down to this.look how great we did



Last edited by Fdemetrio; 04/08/20 09:09 AM.
#1162856 - 04/08/20 09:20 AM Re: In reply to John's shout out.. corona virus [Re: Sunset Poet]  
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Originally Posted by Martin Lide



I don't believe that the cases are still in exponential growth. The new cases have hit a plateau over the last 3 or 4 days.
Correct me if I am wrong.
If they remain on the plateau for a while at the rate of 30k +/- cases a day and 2000 deaths, that will yield 60K deaths a month The USA is at 13k deaths now.
It is not unreasonable to assume that the new cases and deaths will decline as time progresses.
Supposedly, Hospital admissions and ICU admissions and deaths are all down.
Right now...I believe that they are projecting that new case decline to start on the 15th.

If any of these assumptions are incorrect...please correct me. Thanks


You might be right. An uptick yesterday but cases do appear to be increasing about 30,000 a day. So maybe we've moved into a flat rate for awhile. Hopefully the rate will decrease soon.

Scott

#1162857 - 04/08/20 09:23 AM Re: In reply to John's shout out.. corona virus [Re: John Lawrence Schick]  
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Originally Posted by John Lawrence Schick
"Political hoax? Hardly" Political hoax, definitely.


No, the virus isn’t a hoax. It’s real. Although, I’m still thinking this could be genetically engineered by man. The hoax is how the media and political corruptors are manipulating this for less than noble reasons. Joe Biden sickens me with his political ads stating how he would have handled this pandemic differently. Yeah Joe, you’re the man….

John smile


We don't know how Joe would have done. We only know what this President has done.

Do I think the democrats are doing some political manipulation here? Of course I do. Do I think this president was asleep at the switch for two months? Yes.

Scott

#1162858 - 04/08/20 09:34 AM Re: In reply to John's shout out.. corona virus [Re: Fdemetrio]  
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Originally Posted by Fdemetrio
Couch, what about Trump saying it was no threat to America?

What about Trump having stock in the malaria drug, and te!ling people they should take it, not a doctor, just an investor.

Even if he doesn't have money interests, how does somebody with no medical experience say that, let alone the pousa.

"Take it if you want" what do you have to lose? your life??????

What do the people on the Safeway line now tell you? Are they wearing masks and gloves?

Stop reading Glenn beck, rush limbaugh, they are no better than cooper and maddow.

We know it's big money for both sides in the news, but facts are facts, trillions spent, hospitals over stuffed, many have died.

Personally I believe the hype of death rate was a move to ensure compliance of quarantine, I said that in this thread much earlier. The couldn't get kids off the beach or the basketball courts, seems it worked.

It could have also been over stated so that trump can then brag "well they said it would kill 100-200k, but we kept it down to this.look how great we did





All American presidents have a parade of people come at them announcing that life is about to end as we know it...unless that president does what that person says.
You can bet that was Vendman and Ukraine.

Trump was looking at a choice between shutting down the USA or taking a chance that a virus that had not arrived yet...had been massively overblown. Both choices had catastrophic consequences.
At the outset there is proof that Fauci minimized the concern and that the WHO distorted the concern at the behest of the Chinese truth ministry. Trump would have weighed their input at the time.

Trump placed a bet against the virus arriving with any magnitude and lost the bet.
Obama or Clinton likely would have not reacted any better. Polticians worry about "optics." Let's say that Trump shut the country down and avoided the virus almost altogether. People would have looked around and saw no sick people and Trump's detractors would have labelled Trump a paranoid schizophrenic who caused a recession for nothing. If Clinton was president, same thing.

Trump's biggest mistake was shooting his mouth off like he always does. Obama likely would have made the same choices but shown concern for the possible contagion.

When it was clear that the pandemic was actual in the USA, Trump made adjustments, stopped travel from the source and worst infected countries and marshalled his forces in coordination with the governors pretty well.
My guess is that the final death toll in the USA will be 25-50k. that is comparable to a typical flu season. Could have been much much worse.





#1162859 - 04/08/20 09:36 AM Re: In reply to John's shout out.. corona virus [Re: Scott Campbell]  
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Quote
We don't know how Joe would have done. Scott


I do, he'd be in a daze, like always. laugh

John smile

#1162861 - 04/08/20 10:12 AM Re: In reply to John's shout out.. corona virus [Re: Roy Cooper]  
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Marty, if I bet your money, I better win right?

I don't blame trump for the oitbreqk, I think he has listened and did what had to be done, even if his I n fellow right wingers want the country up.

But you can spin it hundreds of ways, he has said some of the dumbest things during this thing that a janitor wouldn't make the mistake of saying.

He'll will probably still beat sleepy joe. Unless the stock in drug things comes to fruition.


Last edited by Fdemetrio; 04/08/20 10:13 AM.
#1162863 - 04/08/20 11:02 AM Re: In reply to John's shout out.. corona virus [Re: Fdemetrio]  
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Originally Posted by Fdemetrio
Marty, if I bet your money, I better win right?

I don't blame trump for the oitbreqk, I think he has listened and did what had to be done, even if his I n fellow right wingers want the country up.

But you can spin it hundreds of ways, he has said some of the dumbest things during this thing that a janitor wouldn't make the mistake of saying.

He'll will probably still beat sleepy joe. Unless the stock in drug things comes to fruition.



I voted for him and if the only other choice is Biden...will do so again.
But early on in this thing, his big mouth has nailed the fact that he made the wrong choice....to a billboard.
So that is Trump's to own.

Now the Biden campaign can plaster the TV with Trump's wrong statements juxtaposed against funerals.
I don't know if he will win next time or not. The wild cards are the economy and how bad of an opponent Biden will be.

Gonna be interesting

#1162865 - 04/08/20 11:33 AM Re: In reply to John's shout out.. corona virus [Re: Roy Cooper]  
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I've never listened to a single word of either Beck.or Limbaugh. Please provide the date and complete, unedited transcript of Trump saying the Wuhan Virus is no threat to America. He issued a travel ban on China in late January. DeBlasio was encouraging New Yorkers to go to the movies weeks after that, and his health commissioner was telling people to go to a Chinese parade. NYC is the US flashpoint for Wuhan.

Whether Trump owns stock in the malaria drug is irrelevant. He's an international businessman with a diversified portfolio. What matters, is whether it's effective, which it appears ro be.

Many base their point of view on what Trump does or says. This is irrelevant to my post above.

The media is pushing fraudulent stories. The apocalyptic predictions aren't coming true, meaning shutting down the economy is a harmful
waste. Wuhan is becoming a Doomsday Cult.


Last edited by couchgrouch; 04/08/20 11:34 AM.

Nashville demos etc:

https://www.soundclick.com/bands3/default.cfm?bandID=431939

other demos:

https://soundcloud.com/wabash-cannibal

Amazon Kindle books by Robert George you may enjoy:

1) Americana

2) Teenage Graceland

3) The Will to Be

4) Fort Mystery

5) Wheel Sea

6) My One True Love
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